Summer 2013 Box Office

[hammard]

Originally Posted by The Yeti

Lol that's this old hackneyed pic's re-release takings are going to overtake the takings of most of the other films released so far this year (including John Carter).

God know why its so popular in China ... didn't they see it the first time round ? Are they fascinated by the Titanic ?

Might be depends what else has been imported. The Chinese government only allow around 20 foreign films a year and most of these require heavy censorship to be cleared. Apart from perhaps the naked drawing scene it can probably be shown mostly complete rather than having to buy bootleg DVDs.

[DaveC]

Predicted Weekend

It's a close battle for the top this weekend with either of "The Lucky One" or "Think Like a Man" emerging victorious.

"The Lucky One" is the latest adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks book, last pic "The Last Song" bowed at $16M which tends to be the norm ("Nights in Rodanthe" ($13M), "The Notebook" ($13M)) but "The Notebook" opened to $30M and "Lucky One" also stars Zak Efron. Efron is problematic as "Charlie St. Cloud" was a bit of a squib with a $13M bow but "17 Again" took $23M in its 1st weekend.

Fandango say the pic sold 10% of yesterdays tickets and thus it could take the #1 spot with about $22.5M.

"Think like a Man" is based upon Steve Harvey's popular book and there are predictions for the ppic to do as high as $25M. But the film is bowing in just 1,800 locations which could hamper its take. Fandango are saying the pic was responsible for 35% of their sales yesterday.

"Hunger Games" should decline at about 40% which should give it a $12M weekend and thus a 3rd spot.

"The Three Stooges", "Titanic" and "Cabin in the Woods" should take the 4,5 & 6 spots. "Titanic" is expected to drop by 40%, "Stooges" 43% and "Cabin" 46% (the bad exit scores from last week expected to cause the bigger drop).

"American Reunion" , "21 Jump Street" & "Mirror Mirror" are also expected to deline in the low 40's

"Chimpanzee" is the weekends other new pic, Disneynature annually release a wild-life pic to time with Earth-day. 2009's "Earth" debuted to $8M, 2010's "Ocean"'s bowed to $6M, last year "African Cats" also took $6M, so I guess we'll call "Chimpanzee" at $6M too. Though Jane Goodall has been performing sterling work in appearing on chat shows across NYC and LA.

Fandango say that yesterday the pic sold 10% of their tickets

1.  “The Lucky One”     Predicted Weekend $22.5M
2.  “Think Like a Man”                    $22.0M
3.  “The Hunger Games”                    $12.0M
4.  “The Three Stooges”                    $9.0M
5.  “Titanic 3D”                           $8.0M
6.  “Cabin in the Woods”                   $7.5M
7.  “American Reunion”                     $6.0M
8.  “Chimpanzee”                           $6.0M
9.  “21 Jump Street”                       $4.0M
10. “Mirror Mirror”                        $3.5M

[DaveC]

Predicted Weekend

The Steve Harvey adaptation "Think Like a Man" is still generating considerable interest, yesterday it sold 42% of Fandango's tickets. Thus Friday Morning predictions have nudged it up a bit and the picture is looking like it could make as much as $25M this weekend. That'll be a great bow for an Urban Comedy and should give it the #1 spot this weekend.

Nicholas Sparks' "The Lucky One" is still holding firm at $21M, similarly "Chimpanzee" is still tracking as expected and should debut with around $6M

[DaveC]

Friday

It looks as if "Hunger Games" will end its 4 weekends at #1 this week, with both "Think like a Man" and "The Lucky One" over performing, pushing "Hunger" into 3rd spot.

"Think like a Man" looks likely to take the top spot having earned $12.2M Friday Night which puts it on track for a $30M Weekend. The picture has been getting excellent exit scores receiving an average of "A" with Men aged over 25 giving it an "A+"

"The Lucky One" marks the 7th adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks Novel and on Friday took $9.1M this puts it on target for a $25M weekend. WB have not yet released exit scores

"Hunger Games" looks as if it will come in at $14M this weekend having taken $4M on Friday, this will represent at 34% drop.

"Chimpanzee" is doing surprisingly well. Midweek estimations were anticipating a $6M weekend but after taking $3.54M Friday Night, Weekend estimations were upgraded to $10M

[DaveC]

US Weekend

"Think Like a Man" scored a great opening weekend, the Urban Comedy took $33M over the weekend. Before we even compare to others of its genre, the weekend take ranks as it as this year's 8th biggest opening putting it betwixt the $33.5M bow of "Wrath of the Titans" and the $30.2M of "John Carter".

Bearing in mind that both those pics opened on 3,500+ theatres to "Think..."'s 2,015 and the theatre average ranks as the 3rd highest if the year with only averages for the "Hunger Games" ($36.9M) and "Lorax" ($18.8M) being better, though it could easily be argued that the pic wouldn't have taken muc more if it has been playing more theatres.The pic is the 9th best opening for an April pic, pushing 2010's 'A Nighmare on Elm Street" into 10th place with a $32M bow. It With 2002's "Scorpion King" in 8th place with $36M.

In the genre of "Urban Comedy" *(always a difficult one to quantify), the pic outbows all but one of Tyler Perry's pics , his best being "Madea Goes to Jail" ($41M), and all of Martin Lawrence's Big Momma" Franchise.

For Distributor, Sony Screen Gems, the pic becomes their 2nd best opening, topped by "The Vow" which earlier this year debuted to $41.2M. It also means that "Dear John" and its 2010 debut of $30M now gets pushed into 3rd best opening weekend having held the top spot for 2 years.

Exit demographics show that 62% of the audience were Women, and mature ones as 62% of the audience were over the age of 30. Exit reviews gave the pic an "A" rating whilst audience members under the age of 25 rated it as an "A+".

"The Lucky One" is the seventh adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks Novel as with a bow of $22.8M ranks as the 2nd best bow with 2010's "Dear John" topping the list with an opening weekend of $30M. For Zak Efron the pic ranks as his 5th best bow (his best being a voice in the Lorax which opened with $70M, 2nd best "High School 3" which opened to $42M). This one is just $1M shy of "17 Again"'s 2009's, $23.7M premiere and double the take of his last picture "Charlie St. Cloud" which had a dismal opening of just $12M and went on to take $31M and had many questioning Efron's longevity.

"Hunger Games" dropped 31% this weekend and finds itself in 3rd spot this weekend, it's 4-week run at #1 at end end but the longest stint there since "Avatar"'s 7 weekend run. This weeks take of $14.5M ranks the pic as the 9th best take for a picture in its 5th weekend which puts it between the $15.3M of 93's "Jurassic Park" and "Spiderman"'s $14.3M. "Avatar" takes the record for the 5th best weekend when it took $42M.

"Hunger Games" has now grossed a total of $356.9M, that makes it the 19th biggest picture of all-time at the US Box Office, that puts its pass "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"'s total gross of $352M and less than $200K behind "Jurassic Park"'s $357.1M, "Passion of the Christ" is just a bit further ahead with $370.8M. "Hunger Games" passed the $350M mark in 30 days (a figure that only 18 pics have achieved) the pic was the 8th quickest to get there, "The Dark Knight" was quickest, getting there in 14 days. "E.T." was slowest taking 351 days.

"Chimpanzee" was a surprise over performer, last two of Disneynature's pics "African Cats" & "Oceans" both opened at $6M while previous record setter "Earth" bowed at $8.8M, thus "Chimpanzee" becomes their best opener. The series always bow to mark Earth Day and this pic was produced in conjunction with The Jane Goodhall Institute (of which proceeds from the pic in the first week will benefit). The film was produced by the unit behind many of the BBC's Natural History programmes (& BBC Bristol get an acknowledgement in the credits).

The picture ranks as the 3rd best opening for a Documentary with "Justin Bieber: Never say Never" ($29M) and "Fahrenheit 9/11" ($23M) ahead.

"The Three Stooges" dropped 45% this weekend and has already become the Farley Bros. 9th biggest picture (out of 11, ahead of "Kingpin"'s gross of $25M and "Osmosis Jones" $13M). The pics decline is pretty heavy for a Farley Bros. picture in its 2nd weekend ranking as their 7th lowest, typically their 2nd weekend drop is about 35%. "Something About Mary" dropped by just 8% in its 2nd weekend (once cinema counts are taken into account).

"Cabin in the Woods" drop of 47% was towards the heavy-side, but expected due to its poor exit scores last weekend. Still the pic has earned $27M in 10 days and with a budget of just $12M it's now just into profit.

"American Reunion" faced its 3rd weekend with a 2nd weekend of 50% declines, it becomes clear that this pic will fail to pass the $100M mark and will thus fail to overtake the $102M of "American Pie" and so will be the lowest grossing of the franchise. However with just $2M to go it will certainly pass its price tag of $50M.

"Titanic"'s 58% drop was a bit heavier than expected and this week Fox announced the cost of producing the 3D version cost them $18M (more a case of accounting as the work needs to be done to produce the forthcoming Blue Ray). The total cume for the pic now stands at $52.8M which brings the domestic take of "Titanic" to $653M. Unsurprisingly it's only the 2nd pic to have achieved that mark in 1,587 days.

"21 Jump Street" took $4.6M which brings its Cume to $127.1M making it the year's 3rd biggest pic at the US Box Office, this weekend it passed "Safe House"'s $125M. For Jonah Hill, the pic has now passed "Superbad"'s $122M has now stands as his 6th biggest pic at the domestic Box Office

Finally, "Mirror Mirror" just edges out "Wrath of the Titans" by $200K to take the 10th spot, earning $4.1M this weekend, bringing its Cume to $55.2M

                                         Theatres Average  Gross    Budget
1.  “Think Like a Man”   $33.0M          2,015    $16,377   $33.0M  $12M
2.  “The Lucky One”      $22.8M          3,155     $7,228   $22.8M  $25M
3.  “The Hunger Games”   $14.5M  -31.3%  3,752     $3,865  $356.9M  $78M
4.  “Chimpanzee”         $10.2M          1,563     $6,529   $10.2M
5.  “The Three Stooges”   $9.2M  -45.9%  3,482     $2,642   $29.3M  $30M
6.  “Cabin in the Woods”  $7.7M  -47.4%  2,811     $2,757   $27.0M  $12M
7.  “American Reunion”    $5.2M  -50.4%  3,033     $1,714   $48.3M  $50M
8.  “Titanic 3D”          $5.0M  -58.1%  2,515     $1,988   $52.8M  $18M
9.  “21 Jump Street”      $4.6M  -29.9%  2,427     $1,895  $127.1M  $42M
10. “Mirror Mirror”       $4.1M  -39.9%  2,938     $1,400   $55.2M  $85M

[DaveC]

Overseas Weekend

(real life means I have to do this earlier than normal making some of the totals a bit sketchy I will provide a bit more info if life permits )

"Battleships" takes the #1 spot this weekend with $58.4M derived from 9,038 theatres spread across 50 markets. The picture widened by a further 16 markets this weekend and it was chiefly these that brought the big paydays, China once again proved its importance to the Overseas Market with a $17M debut while Russia also staked its claim with a $10M bow. The picture has so-far cumed $129.6M and has 16 markets left to open and already suggestions that the picture is in trouble are airing.

With a budget of $205M (many are saying the real figure before marketing is closer to $250M) and all the major offshore markets behind it, the film has barely made $130M and still needs to make another $70M in order to even match the price tag, thus the US bow will also be vital in deciding if the pic is to make any money.

Still the pic ranks as the 6th biggest pic of the year in the Offshore chart ironically with "John Carter" in 5th place which this weekend seems to have crossed the $200M mark in the Overseas Chart which means the pic has now earned a Global $269M, now all it has to do is take another $250M to get into profit

"Titanic 3D" takes $34.3M from 79 markets which gives it 2nd spot. China once again provides Fox's largest Box Office, this weekend taking $24M which means the pic has earned $105M from that territory alone. Offshore Cume for this re-release now stands at $227M meaning that astonishingly the picture is now the biggest film of the year in the Overseas Chart (even beating "Journey 2: The Mysterious Island" which has so far grossed $221M Offshore).

Worldwide the Pic has raised $280M making it 4th biggest pic of the year, just $100K ahead of "Wrath of the Titans". For "Titanic" itself, the picture has now cumed $2.1B, still trailing "Avatar"'s $2.7B but now they are the only two pics to have cumed more than $2B.

"Hunger Games" this weekend took $13M from 71 territories (this weekend adding Spain where the picture debuted to $4.1M. Offshore the picture has earned $215M ranking it as the 3rd biggest pic of the year in the Offshore chart. Worldwide it's take of $572M makes it the years biggest pic (with "Journey 2" in 2nd spot with a Worldwide $321M).

In terms of the all-time biggest pics, "Hunger Games" still ranks in a relatively lowly spot of #74, having just overtaken "The Smurfs" of $563M but is just $2M behind "Night at the Museum". This time next weekend the pic may even have surpassed "Iron Man"'s #71 position which it holds with a $585M Cume.

"American Reunion" earned $9.1M from 37 markets, Brazil this weekend bowed to $2.2M. The pictures offshore Cume now stands at $56M. As with the US the pic is still by far the lowest grossing pic, the lowest grossing pic being "American Wedding" having cumed $126M offshore but with a Worldwide take of $104M the pic has just crawled into profit.

"Wrath of the Titans" slipped over the $200M Cume this weekend thanks to a weekend take of $8M this means the picture is now the 4th biggest overseas picture of the year putting it in between "John Carter"'s $200M and "Hunger Games" $215M. Worldwide the pic has Cumed $278M, just $20M shy of the magic $300M mark when the pic starts to make money. Looking at the release schedule the pic was due to open in Japan but WB haven't yet stated how much of the weekend came from this bow.

"Pirates! Band of Misfits" opens in the US this coming Friiday, this weekend it took $7.8M from 46 markets this brings its foreign cume to $55.9M, which still seems off as even "Arthur Christmas" (Aardman's lowest grossing Foreign Pic) took $101M.

French Pic "Sur la piste du Marsupilami" holds the French #1 for a 3rd weekend with $6.1M bringing this animated tale of the fictional Marsupilami to $29.8M

"Dr. Seuss' the Lorax" takes $5.1M from 49 markets bringing its Overseas Cume to $83.3M, the offshore take comprises just 29% of "Lorax"'s Worldwide take of $290.3M which makes it the years 3rd biggest picture.

Woody Allen's Eurotrip now stops in Rome and this weekend "To Rome With Love" bowed in Italy to $4M.

Finally "The Lucky One" started its offshore campaign bowing in 9 markets to $3.8M, $2.5M of which was source from a #1 Australian opening

1.  “Battleship”    O’seas W’kend $58.4M  O’seas Cume $129.6M W’wide Cume $129.6M Budget $205M
2.  “Titanic 3D”                  $34.3M              $227.3M             $280.1M         $18M
3.  “The Hunger Games”            $13.0M              $215.8M             $572.7M         $78M
4.  “American Reunion”             $9.5M               $56.0M             $104.3M         $50M
5.  “Wrath of the Titans”          $8.0M              $201.0M             $278.1M        $150M
6.  “Pirates! Band of Misfits”     $7.8M               $55.9M                             $60M
7.  “Sur la piste du Marsupilami”  $6.1M               $29.8M
8.  “Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax”         $5.8M               $83.3M             $290.3M         $70M
9.  “To Rome with Love”            $4.0M    
10. “The Lucky One”                $3.8M                $3.8M              $26.6M         $25M

[DaveC]

Predicted Weekend

So this weekend sees the end of the Spring Season and we have 4 pics released. "Five Year Engagement" looks as if it'll push "Think Like a Man" into 2nd spot. "FYE" stars Jason Segel & Emily Blunt and is produced by Judd Apatow (interestingly the promos declare it to be from "The Producer of Bridesmaids" rather than Apatow hoping to attract the Bridesmaids Audience rather than Apatow's usual crowd).

Segal's last bow was "The Muppets" which weekended with $29M, probably closer to the norm is "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" which debuted at $17M. But add on his "How I Met Your Mother" boost to his fanbase and we're probably looking at around $22-$23M.

The pic hasn't made Fandango's top 5 sellers but that's hardly a surprise with "Avengers" selling 40% of yesterday's tickets

"Think Like a Man" looks as if it'll fall somewhere in the high 40's so a $17M-$18M can be expected. A similar drop for "The Lucky One" should put it with a 2nd weekend of $12M."Hunger Games" should drop by about 20%

John Cusack's "The Raven" gets its US Bow (and I still haven't asked him about my Cusackathon yet). Cusack's last pic was 2010's "Hot Tub Time Machine" which bowed at $14M, it seems a long time ago he was headlining Blockbusters such as 2009's "2012". Currently the pic is expected to open with $10.0-$10.5M which should put it a nose ahead of.

"Pirates! Band of Misfiits", Aardman have never done particularly well in the US, "Arthur Christmas" bowed at $12.1M and went on to take $40M, "Were Rabbit" opened at $16M and took $56M. Typically the pic performs much better offshore but at the moment it's raised just $56M outside of the US and Aardman will be looking for the US to provide at least another $50M to at least make a small profit.

Unfortunately it doesn't look to be the case, at the moment tracking is suggesting a $10M weekend which would imply the film will close at around $30M

The Stathe returns to US Cinema this weekend with "Safe", typically Statham's pics open at around $10M (last pic "Killer Elite" opened at $9M, before that "The Mechanic" $11M). Tracking is suggesting this pic will be one of his lower grossing pics and this a $8M-$9M weekend looks on the books

.  “The Five Year Engagement”   Predicted W’kend  $23.0M
2.  “Think Like a Man”                             $17.0M
3.  “The Lucky One”                                $12.0M
4.  “Hunger Games”                                 $11.0M
5.  “The Raven”                                    $10.5M
6.  “Pirates! Band of Misfits”                     $10.0M
7.  “Safe”                                          $9.0M
8.  “The Cabin in the Woods”                        $6.0M
9.  “The Three Stooges”                             $5.0M
10. “Chimpanzee”                                    $4.0M

[DaveC]

The Avengers

THR are reporting that the first openings for the "Avengers" is off to a great start. In Australia the pic bowed at $6M making it the 2nd best opening of all-time, just $1M behind "Deathly Hallows part 2" and a collosal 218% up on "Iron Man 2"'s bow of $1.8M

In Taiwan the pic scored the best ever Wednesday Opening taking $1.8M

This weekend sees the pic bow in 42 territories

[DaveC]

The Avengers

The Avengers opened in 39 Offshore markets this weekend, bowing to $178.4M. Biggest market was the UK where the picture picked up $24.7M, (16th biggest opening of all time there), Australia provided $19.7M (2nd biggest opening) , Mexico weekended with $15.9M (a new record). S. Korea produced $12.9M, France $12.6M, Brazil $11.3M, Italy $10.4M. Germany surprisingly produced only $6.3M.

The picture has yet to open in the modern day big players of Russia and China, those markets open this coming Weekend. In Japan the picture will not bow until Augist.

The UK take sees it nestling between the $25.3M of "Quantum of Solace" and the $24.1M of "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull". Rather less surprisingly the biggest opening weekend in the UK belongs to "Deathly Hallows Part 2" which bowed to $38.3M. The pic is the biggest bow for a Superhero pic in the UK, that was formerly held by "Spider Man 3" which debuted to $23.6M.

The Weekend Bow of $178.4M makes the pic the 9th biggest opening of all-time in the Offshore Market (limited by the lack of China and Russia) , slotting in between "Order of the Phoenix"'s $193M and "2012"'s $165M ("Deathly Hallows 2" World Wide bow was $314M). It also means the picture is already the 7th biggest picture in the year's biggest Offshore pics, needing just $30M to pass "John Carter"

[DaveC]

US Weekend

The last weekend of Spring saw a few surprises, first "Think Like a Man" easily took the #1 spot pretty much coming in as expected which pushes its Cume to $60M in just 10 days, great for just a $12M movie. The Pic already would rank as Tyler Perry's 2nd biggest movie (with just "Madea Goes to Jail" ranking above with $90M), and will shortly overtake the $65M of "Barbershop 2".

"Pirates! Band of Misfits" takes a surprising 2nd place but once again pretty much coming in on Target, the film ranks as Aardman's lowest opening pic in the US (though "Arthur Christmas" only narrowly beats it with a $12.1M bow last November. "Flushed Away" remains their best US Opening which debuted at $18.8M and had DKG tearing up their distribution contract with the Bristol animators. The pic has so-far earned $74M Worldwide and could do with picking up at least another $20M before it ends its run

Sony report that 49% of the audience were children under the age of 12, Of the other 51%, 54% were Female and Exit reviews graded it as a "B".

"Hunger Games" dropped just 26% with a 26% drop, this brings the pictures cume to $372M, this now ranks it as the 17th biggest picture in the all-time US Box Office, just $1M short of "Spider Man 2"'s all-time domestic gross with #15 spot held by "Return of the King" with a US Gross of $377M.

"The Lucky One" dropped 52%, fairly heavy for a Nicholas Sparks adaptation, "Dear John" fell by 47% and "The Notebook" by 44% while "Last Song" & "Walk to Remember" fell by 30%. The picure has now Cumed $39.4M

Jason Segal's "The Five Year Engagement" had a horrible weekend, expected to top the chart with about $23M, coming in with $10.6M is a disaster. Segal's pics usually bow with about $17M, fresh on the back of "Muppet" success the pic was anticipating low 20's, but a $10M bow is low even by his standards. The pic ranks as his 8th biggest opening, at least it beat his turn in the Jack Black Comedy "Gulliver's Travels" which bowed at just $6M.

At least with just a $30M budget, there's a possibility that the film might just scrape pass that price tag before it eventually closes.

The pics big problem was Friday, taking just $3.4M, the pic was expected to do at least double that on Date-Night and better Saturday and Sunday holds ($4.5M & $2.5M) couldn't recover from the first night flop.

Universal (yes it is they) report that the demographics show 64% of the audience were Female and 57% of the whole audience were aged 25 or older. Hopes that Word of Mouth might save the pic are dashed as exit reviews give it a B-

Jason Statham's "Safe" opened at $7.9M ranking it as his 15th biggest opener (out of 25), slotting between the $9.1M of 2002's "The Transporter" and the $7.0M of 2009's "Crank: high Voltage". The take was down on Statham's last pic "Killer Elite" which bowed at $9M

Audience was 58% Male and skewing older with 78% of the audience older than 25.

John Cussak's "The Raven" bowed at $7.3M, this is Cussak's worst opening since 2007's "Martian Child" opened in a comparable number of theatres to just $3M. The pic ranks as his 11th best opener (out of an amazing 53 pics). But 2009 seems long ago when "2012" opened at $30M

"Chiimpanzee"'s drop of 51% was a strong hold for Disneynature pic, "Oceans" dropped by 57% in its 2nd weekend, "African Cats" 60%, only 2009's "Earth" held better with 50.8%. The pic now ranks as the 9th best gross for a Documentary, another $500K will see it pass the total take of "Oceans" while in 7th place comes "Bowling for Columbine" with a US Gross of $21.6M

"The Three Stooges" takes $5.2M bringing its Cume to $36.9M, though the picture has passed is price tag it'll be interesting to see how it performs offshore and whether it can make a profit. Currently the pic ranks as the Farley Bros, 7th biggest picture just $100K above 2007's "The Heartbreak Kid", but needs another $6M to overtake "Fever Pitch" (The US Version)

"Cabin in the Woods" takes $4.1M this weekend a benign 42% drop in its 3rd weekend bringing its Cume to $34M and with a budget of just $12M is now comfortably in profit.

                               W’kend          Th’tres  Average Gross    Budget
1.  “Think Like a Man”         $17.6M  -47.7%  2,015    $8,737   $60.5M  $12M
2.  “Pirates! Band of Misfits” $11.1M          3,358    $3,317   $11.1M  $55M
3.  “The Hunger Games”         $10.8M  -26.3%  3,572    $3,028  $372.0M  $78M
4.  “The Lucky One”            $10.8M  -52.0%  3,175    $3,404   $39.4M  $25M
5.  “The Five Year Engagement” $10.6M          2,936    $3,614   $10.6M  $30M
6.  “Safe”                      $7.9M          2,266    $3,483    $7.9M  $30M
7.  “The Raven”                 $7.3M          2,203    $3,309    $7.3M  $26M
8.  “Chimpanzee”                $5.2M  -51.0%  1,567    $3,336   $18.9M
9.  “The Three Stooges”         $5.2M  -47.1%  3,105    $1,664   $36.9M  $30M
10. “The Cabin in the Woods”    $4.6M  -42.4%  2,639    $1,750   $34.8M  $12M