Summer 2013 Box Office

[johnone]

Safe to say Taylor kitsch is finished as a box office star. before he even began....First John Carter and now Battleship........really Taylor I think you need to get a new agent. ( Although I blame the SYFY version which was shown this weekend....like Universal tried to , Damn you Mario van Peebles ) the other person who will get the blame will be Director Peter Berg...it'll be interesting to see the size of his next budget...although after seeing this mess I think there are a lot of people breathing a sigh of relief he didn't get his version of Dune off the ground.

Another loser is Sasha Baron Cohen, the Dictator looks like it won't break even but what's surprising is that in the hype for this film ( academy award malfunctions and all) everyone seems to have forgotten what a fiasco Bruno had been. that should have been warning enough that as a comedian the U.S Box office just isn't interested,Cohen will be better off concentrating on his serious roles.

Dark Shadows : Maybe Tim Burton should take a break for a while... I know Frankenweenie is coming but I gurantee you there are a lot of executives getting worried out there after the performance of this...although I don't know why as from the moment last year Depp was spotted in his make up , people smelled disaster. I think this entire fiasco can be summed up by the video on Cracked where Johnny Depp is Tim Burton in "Tim Burton's Tim Burton."

What to Expect when you're expecting........perhaps the full title should be "What to expect when you're expecting...Drek!"

The Lucky One which will make a small profit

Think Like A man....Tyler Perry strikes again , looking at a $50 million profit

And Surprisingly Best Exotic which actually rose in the box office ...and if I'm right will be one of the big British Box Office Successes of the year.

[DaveC]

Overseas Weekend

Cannes is taking a lot of the attention to the reporters who typically report on the Overseas Box Office and that was before the roof collapsed. I may have to return and tweak the lower regions of the charts.

"The Avengers" was this weekend's clear leader taking $56M from 54 markets pushing its Overseas Cume to $723M and now ranks as Disney's 7th biggest picture in the all-time Offshore chart, trailing "LOTR:Return of the King" and its offshore gross of $742M. It's still not Disney's largest picture offshore, that still belongs to "POTC: On Stranger Tides" which grossed $802.8M offshore

The UK remains the films largest Overseas Earner, having contributed $72.3M, China follows with $69.3M then Mexico with $56.2M

Worldwide its gross now stands at $1,180M making it the 4th biggest movie of all-time, with only "Avatar" ($2.78B), "Titanic" ($2.2B), "Deathly Hallows Part 2" ($1.3B) ahead it thus becomes Disney;s biggest picture having leap-frogged "On Stranger Tides" Global take of $1,044M.

"Dark Shadows" takes 2nd spot with $30.4M drawn from 52 markets, this weekend's biggest earner was Japan where the film debuted to $5M, though France saw its 2nd weekend provide $4.6M. Offshore the film has earned $81.3M and Globally $132.2M making it the 17th biggest picture of the year, trailing "Ghost Rider 2"'s $132.6M Worldwide take.

For Burton, the picture stands as his 8th biggest picture, "Sweeny Todd" sits in 7th spot with a Global Cume of $152.5M. For Depp the picture ranks as his 14th biggest with "Sweeny Todd" his 13th biggest.

"The Dictator" finishes just behind with $30.3M though much of the figure comes from 5-day releases, in the UK it took $7.2M over 5 days, "Australia" provied $5.6M and took the #1 spot in 25 of the 29 markets it bowed in. Globally its cume comes to $54.7M.

"American Reunion" seems to be turning into the little engine that could for Universal, this weekend taking $10.2M from 48 markets lifting its Offshore Cume to $159M. Last weekend the picture became the Franchises biggest overseas earner but Worldwide its cume of $215M still sees it as the lowest grossing pic still trailing "Wedding" (the 3rd biggest) by $15M. It currently ranks as this year's 9th biggest picture.

With "Battleship" off to a very poor start in the US, the Overseas Market takes on more importance for Universal, this weekend the film raised $6.5M from 63 markets bringing the pictures offshore Cume to $226.8M This now makes it the 4th biggest picture in this year's Overseas Box Office, slotting in between "The Hunger Games" $244M and "Journey 2: The Mysterious Island"'s $222M.

Worldwide, its gross of $252M, sees it in 8th place, trailing "John Carter"'s $272M.

Cannes saw "Un gout de rouille et d'os" (A Taste of Rust & Bone), bow to $4.6M, the story is of a Ex-Boxer who gives up the Ring to train Killer Whales.

"The Lucky One" took $2.7M to bring its Offshore Cume to $26.4M and Worldwide it now stands at $83.2M the picture now trails "Nights in Rodanthe" by $900K to become Spark's 5th biggest adaptation globally.

"The Vow" opened for Valentine's day, but this weekend makes an appearance in the charts tanks to taking $2M from 21 markets (just 570 screens). This brings the films Worldwide Cume to $189M which sees the film rank as the year's 11th biggest picture.

1.  "The Avengers"    W'kend $56.0M  O'seas Cume $723.3M W'wide Cume $1,180.3M Budget $220M
2.  "Dark Shadows"           $30.4M               $81.3M               $132.2M        $150M
3.  "The Dictator"           $30.3M               $30.3M                $54.7M         $65M
4.  "American Reunion"       $10.2M              $159.4M               $215.9M         $50M
5.  "Battleship"              $6.5M              $226.8M               $252.1M        $209M
6.  "Un gout de rouille"      $4.6M
7.  "The Lucky One"           $2.7M               $26.4M                $83.2M         $25M
7.  "The Vow"                 $2.0M               $64.0M               $189.0M         $30M
8.  "Best Exotic Marigold"    $1.9M               $78.8M                $87.1M
9.  "21 Jump Street"          $1.9M               $52.2M               $187.5M         $42M

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by johnone

Safe to say Taylor kitsch is finished as a box office star. before he even began....First John Carter and now Battleship........really Taylor I think you need to get a new agent. ( Although I blame the SYFY version which was shown this weekend....like Universal tried to , Damn you Mario van Peebles ) the other person who will get the blame will be Director Peter Berg...it'll be interesting to see the size of his next budget...although after seeing this mess I think there are a lot of people breathing a sigh of relief he didn't get his version of Dune off the ground.

Poor old Taylor, just prior to the release of "John Carter" one of the press releases described how only a few months ago he was living in his car. One Waspy commentator this weekend commented that they hoped he hadn't let go of the car as he may need it soon

[pedro]

Johnone have you seen the poster of Depp as Tonto? beggars belief

[johnone]

Oh I have seen the picture and as a childhood fan of the Lone Ranger...(I had the 12 inch action figures and their horses) I can safely say there is so much wrong with that picture...i thought I'd spit blood.

[DaveC]

Predicted Weekend

Hooray it's Memorial Day, for many Americans the first Public Holiday since January 1st and the chance to get out the white shoes and trousers again.

The "Avengers" will lose their top spot this weekend which will no doubt be newsworthy in itself but with a 45-50% decline the weekend would only have seen about $30M anyway and the 4-day should see it take somewhere between $45M-$50M

Taking the #1 spot this weekend will be "Men in Black 3", the original "MIB" bowed to $51M way back in '97 and went on to take $250M, "MIB2" followed in 2002 with a debut of $52M and went on to accume $190M. Now 10 years later "MIB3" is looking to bow with about $50M over the weekend and the 4-day should see it take $70M.

Last weekend "Battleship" quickly was described as a Mega Flop by many US commentators, failing to notice that the pic had already picked up $226M Offshore. This weekend the pic is looking as if it'll drop by about 50% over the weekend (circa $12M) and the 4-day should see it take around $15M which would see its Cume come to about $50M

"Chernobyl Diaries" ploughs the low-budget, found-footage furrow. "Project X" bowed to $21M and "Chronicle" $22M but t"Darkest Hour" opened ti just $5M and "Apollo 18" to $8M. "Chernobyl" looks as if it will be one of the lower grossing ilk so a weekend of about $8M and a 4-day of $13M seems probable.

"The Dictator" should drop in the high 50's and thus weekend with about $9M and the 4-day should bring $12M

This weekend I'm off to see "The Intouchables" finally bowing in the US, having made $339M offshore. However it's opening in just 4 theatres this weekend and this won't be troubling the 10 though it's theatre average will be interesting

1.  “Men in Black 3”       Predicted 4-day  $70.0M
2.  “The Avengers”                          $45.0M
3.  “Battleship”                            $15.0M
4.  “Chernobyl Diaries”                     $13.0M
5.  “The Dictator”                          $12.0M
6.  “Dark Shadows”                           $7.7M
7.  “Best Exotic Marigold..”                 $7.5M
8.  “What to Expect…”                        $7.3M
9.  “The Hunger Games”                       $3.0M
10. “Think like a Man”                       $1.5M

[DaveC]

"MIB3" took $1.6M from Midnight shows and the predicted 4-day is starting to look at about a $20M Friday and the 4-day should bring in somewhere between $80M- $100M.

Add to that another $100M from Overseas sales and the $230M costing pic should gross $200M worldwide.


"Chernobyl Diaries" also had Midnight showings taking $525K

[DaveC]

US Weekend

After a 10 year absence, "MIB3" returns and takes the top spot with $55M instantly causing a debate as to whether this was an under performing or not. Certainly on Friday Morning there were predictions of a $100M but most were calling for a $50M Weekend and a $70M 4-day. At the moment this looks to be the case. Though the rule of 3 would suggest that the pic won't close with the necessary $215M to match the overly expensive budget (many rival studios say the cost was closer to $300M)

One reason for the huge budget was that the shoot suffered a 6-week, mid-shoot hiatus while scripting problems were resolved.

On the face of it, "MIB3" has the best opening weekend of the franchise as '97's first pic opened to $51M, 2002's "MIB2" bowed to $52M, but if we take inflation into it, then the first pic would have an opening of around $88M while MIB2's adjusted bow would be circa $71M.

For Smith, the pic marks his return to the screen after a 4 year break (2008's "Seven Pounds" & "Hancock") and the film ranks as his 3rd best, behind the $77M of 2007's "I Am Legend" and the $62M of "Hancock".

Audience demographics indicate 54% of the audience were Male and 56% of the audience were aged over 25. Exit scoring was positive ranking the film as a solid B+.I might add that on Sunday afternoon all screens showing MIB3 in South LA were very full.

"Avengers" drops to 2nd spot this weekend with a very benign drop of just 33%, this weekend the pictures Cume now stands at $513M meaning that it passed the $500M in just 23 days setting a new record for a pic to reach the ½ Billion mark, bettering "Avatar" which took 32 days to get here, while "The Dark Knight" too 45. Though its ascent is slowing down, last weekend it lost the best 3rd weekend hold to "Avatar" and the same it true in its 4th weekend. Cameron's film took $50M in its 4th weekend.

The film currently ranks as the 4th biggest picture at the all-time US Box Office, now just $20M behind "The Dark Knight"'s gross of $533M which it is expected to have surpassed by Friday.

"Battleship" dropped a heavy 57% this weekend, at least it's not the plus 60% that many predicted, taking $10.8M which pushes the pictures cume to $44.3M meaning the film that cost $209M to produce has yet to even pass the $50M mark. Even John Carter had made $53.2M.

Sasha Baron Cohen's "The Dictator" had a mild drop of 45% taking $9.6M this weekend pushing the pictures Cume to $41.4M. The picture looks as if it will close with only just over $50M and extremely unlikely to pass "Bruno"'s $60M

"Chernobyl Diaries" started the weekend well bowing to $3.5M but dropped 33% by Saturday (MIB3 dropped by just 8%) and looks like taking $8M over the weekend and $9.2M over the 4-day which means it will probably drop to 6th spot in the 4-day chart.

In the genre of "found footage", the pic failed to open better than the other other "perceived" failure of "Apollo 18" ($8.7M) and sets a new low point of the genre.

Last Weekend, "Dark Shadows" suffered a heavy 57% drop, this weekend the picture had a much milder 40% drop taking $7.5M over the weekend and is projected to take $9.4M over the 4 day which means it will probably steal the 5th spot from "Chernobyl Diaries".

However with a price tag of $150M and gross of $63M after 3 weekends, the pic still hasn't even made half of of its cost indicates the film won't make a profit. Still for both Depp and Burton, the pic has outgrossed the $52M of "Sweeny Todd". For Burton the film ranks as his 9th biggest, trailing "Big Fish" by $4M, For Depp, the picture is now $5M behind "The Tourist" and ranks as his 12th biggest pic.

"What to Expect When You're Expecting" took $7.15M this weekend, a very mild 32% drop on its debut but starting from such a low base with its $10M bow means that it has only managed to accumulate $22M meaning that it too looks extremely unlikely to match its budget before close.

Still no-one seems to know how much "Exotic Marigold Hotel" cost or how much TWC paid to distribute it in N.Amerca. This weekend the pic widened by 879 theatres (hence the 95% increase on last weekend) taking $6.3M and pushing its cume to $16.6M (now $95M Worldwide).

"Hunger Games" celebrates its 10th weekend in the charts taking $2.7M (an amazing 6.8% decline from last weekend). The picture has cumed $395M (yes I did say it was highly unlikely it would hit the $400M mark) making it the 2nd biggest picture of the year and at the US Box Office it ranks as the 14th biggest picture, now needing only $7M to overtake "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"

Now that it seems to have dropped out of the International Charts (though a China opening is due in a few weeks) the pic has accumulated $639M Worldwide making it the 56th biggest pic of all time, needing $10M more to overtake "Attack of the Clones"

"Think Like a Man" takes the 10th spot, beating "Pirates" by $300K, it has managed to Cume $88M. Seemingly one of the few songs in the chart to have made any money.

                             W’kend          Th’tres Average Gross    Budget
1.  “Men in Black 3”         $55.0M          4,248   $12,947  $55.0M  $215M
2.  “The Avengers”           $37.0M  -33.5%  3,918    $9.440 $513.7M  $220M
3.  “Battleship”             $10.8M  -57.7%  3,702    $2,917  $44.3M  $209M
4.  “The Dictator”            $9.6M  -44.9%  3,014    $3,185  $41.4M   $65M
5.  “Chernobyl Diaries”       $8.0M          2,433    $3,288   $8.0M   $12M
6.  “Dark Shadows”            $7.5M  -40.3%  3,404    $2,208  $63.0M  $150M
7.  “What to Expect..”        $7.1M  -32.2%  3,021    $2,367  $22.2M   $40M
8.  “Best Exotic Marigold..”  $6.3M  +96.6%  1,233    $5,150  $16.6M
9.  “The Hunger Games”        $2.7M   -6.8%  1,421    $1,935 $395.2M   $78M
10. “Think Like A Man”        $1.4M  -47.2%    786    $1,781  $88.3M   $12M

[johnone]

If Best Exotic Marigold hotel continues at the rate it's going it'll hit a worldwide gross of $100 million in the next week or two ...before this weekends u.s box office it had taken $88 Million. According to the New York Times it cost $10 Million to make...(It has been released by Fox Searchlight which would seem to confirm that budget!) if the buget is that much than it's going to be the biggest grossing British film of the year.

MIB III , Let this be a lesson to all studios ....have your script finished before you film. (The story does show all signs of rewrites.) but to cost that much ???good grief!

It looks like The Dictator will not match Bruno at the U.S box office...and Bruno was a flop! I think this is the end of Baron Cohen being given carte blanche when it comes to promoting his films.....(This Years Academy awards "Debacle" now looks utterly pathetic with the films failure to take off.)

So Disney can now at least say about John Carters domestic Box Office "Hey at least it wasn't Battleship" the longer thi debacle goes on , the more Taylor Kitsch career dies....if it cotinues he'll be lucky if he's flippin burgers next year in Indie pictures.As for Peter Berg I get the feeling that he will not be allowed to ever direct a mega budget film like this again.

Chernobyl Diaries...this is the wrong time of year to release this type of film, I also think that thanks to the debacle of Devil Inside, there's a backlash against crappy found footage films.
"What was that?"
"I Don't know ,I can't get the camera to focus on that exact spot so all I got was camera shake. whatever it was it wasn't original!"

Dark Shadows is Stabilizing ....at Fifth. Nothing can be said because this is a fiasco for all involved.

Again What to expect when you're ......is hopefully suffering a backlash against insufferable tripe such as Valentines day and New Years day.

So except for Best Exotic , Cinema Managers must be grateful for the repeat business of the Avengers and Hunger Games because so far the Summer Box Office fare for May such as MIB III, Battleship, the Dictator and Dark Shadows have been underwhelming and frankly shockingly poor.

[DaveC]

US 4-day Weekend

So here are the official estimates for the 4-day weekend, published so-early on Monday morning (barely time for the Studios to see their Sunday figures) they can be taken with some skepticism and I'll publish the actuals tomorrow lunchtime.

                             W’kend  4-day  Th’tres  Average Gross    Budget
1.  “Men in Black 3”         $55.0M  $70.0M  4,248   $16,478  $70.0M  $215M
2.  “The Avengers”           $37.0M  $46.9M  3,918   $11,965 $523.6M  $220M
3.  “Battleship”             $10.8M  $13.8M  3,702    $3,719  $47.3M  $209M
4.  “The Dictator”            $9.6M  $11.7M  3,014    $3,900  $43.6M   $65M
5.  “Dark Shadows”            $7.5M   $9.4M  3,404    $2,763  $64.9M  $150M
6.  “Chernobyl Diaries”       $8.0M   $9.3M  2,433    $3,822   $9.3M   $12M
7.  “What to Expect..”        $7.1M   $8.8M  3,021    $2,929  $23.9M   $40M
8.  “Best Exotic Marigold..”  $6.3M   $8.2M  1,233    $6,671  $18.4M
9.  “The Hunger Games”        $2.7M   $2.9M  1,421    $2,006 $395.9M   $78M
10. “Think Like A Man”        $1.4M   $1.8M    786    $2,290  $88.6M   $12M